Four Problems about Self-Locating Belief

In this article I defend the Doomsday Argument, the Halfer Position in Sleeping Beauty, the Fine-Tuning Argument, and the applicability of Bayesian confirmation theory to the Everett interpretation of quantum mechanics. I will argue that all four problems have the same structure, and I give a unified treatment that uses simple models of the cases and no controversial assumptions about confirmation or self-locating evidence. I will argue that the troublesome feature of all these cases is not selflocation but selection effects. In part 1, I explain selection effects, develop a framework for analyzing them, and connect them to self-location. In part 2, I explain the four problems about self-locating belief and analyze them using our framework. In part 3, I criticize other approaches to self-locating beliefs by drawing on the analogy between the four problems.